H.R. 3338 (119th)Bill Overview

MARKET CHOICE Act

Taxation|Taxation
Cosponsors
Support
Bipartisan
Introduced
May 13, 2025
Discussions
Bill Text
Current stageCommittee

Referred to the Subcommittee on Highways and Transit.

Introduced
Committee
Floor
President
Law
Congressional Activities
01 · The brief

This bill creates a new federal tax on greenhouse gas emissions across fossil fuels, industrial processes, and certain products, starting at $40 per metric ton CO2e in 2027 and escalating annually.

It establishes border carbon adjustments, refunds for sequestration and noncombustive product uses, and a RISE Trust Fund to direct most revenue to highways, airports, state grants, climate R&D, carbon removal, and other programs.

The measure repeals federal motor vehicle and aviation fuel excise taxes, limits certain EPA regulatory authority over emissions taxed under the bill until trigger dates, funds displaced energy worker assistance, and creates a bipartisan National Climate Commission.

Passage20/100

Large, ideologically charged tax and regulatory restructuring with complex international and administrative consequences historically has low enactment probability.

CredibilityPartial

How solid the drafting looks.

Contention72/100

EPA moratorium: liberals worried, conservatives sometimes supportive

02 · What it does

Who stands to gain, and who may push back.

Who this appears to help vs burden50% / 50%
Targeted stakeholdersConsumers · Manufacturers
Likely helped
  • Targeted stakeholdersProvides a dedicated revenue stream for infrastructure, primarily supporting the Highway Trust Fund and related program…
  • Targeted stakeholdersApplies a carbon price that may reduce greenhouse gas emissions by raising fossil fuel costs.
  • Targeted stakeholdersDirects funding to flood adaptation, carbon removal, R&D, and conservation, increasing climate resilience investments.
Likely burdened
  • ConsumersLikely raises energy and transportation costs, increasing consumer prices and operating costs for businesses.
  • ManufacturersCreates significant new compliance, reporting, and administrative burdens for fuel producers, manufacturers, and import…
  • Targeted stakeholdersConstrains EPA authority under the Clean Air Act for taxed emissions, creating regulatory gaps until 2039.
03 · Why people split

Why the argument around this bill splits.

EPA moratorium: liberals worried, conservatives sometimes supportive
Progressive75%

Likely broadly favorable to a federal carbon price that funds infrastructure and climate programs, but skeptical about policy weaknesses.

Key concerns include the Clean Air Act moratorium on EPA regulation, possible low starting price, and refundable treatment for enhanced oil recovery.

Would push for stronger climate targets, protections for low-income households, and strict rules limiting fossil-fuel subsidies or loopholes.

Leans supportive
Centrist60%

Views the bill as a pragmatic market-based approach tying a carbon price to infrastructure funding and transition assistance.

Appreciates border adjustments and worker programs but worries about administrative complexity, international trade compliance, consumer price impacts, and the EPA moratorium's interaction with federal programs.

Would favor careful implementation, clear timelines, and consumer protections.

Split reaction
Conservative20%

Likely opposed overall due to creation of a new, broad federal tax on fuels and industrial activity and expanded federal spending programs.

Some provisions—repeal of existing fuel excises and moratorium on EPA regulatory action—may be viewed positively, but the net effect is greater federal intervention and cost increases for businesses and consumers.

Likely resistant
04 · Can it pass?

The path through Congress.

Introduced

Reached or meaningfully advanced

Committee

Reached or meaningfully advanced

Floor

Still ahead

President

Still ahead

Law

Still ahead

Passage likelihood20/100

Large, ideologically charged tax and regulatory restructuring with complex international and administrative consequences historically has low enactment probability.

Scope and complexity
86%
Scopesweeping
86%
Complexityhigh
Why this could stall
  • Projected net revenue and macroeconomic impacts absent official CBO score
  • Administrative feasibility and timing of required regulations
05 · Recent votes

Recent votes on the bill.

No vote history yet

The bill has not accumulated any surfaced votes yet.

06 · Go deeper

Go deeper than the headline read.

Included on this page

EPA moratorium: liberals worried, conservatives sometimes supportive

Large, ideologically charged tax and regulatory restructuring with complex international and administrative consequences historically has l…

Unlocked analysis

Pro readers get the full perspective split, passage barriers, legislative design review, stakeholder impact map, and lens-based policy tradeoff analysis for MARKET CHOICE Act.

Go beyond the headline summary with full stakeholder mapping, legislative design analysis, passage barriers, and lens-by-lens tradeoff breakdowns.

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