H.R. 4978 (119th)Bill Overview

Secure Trade Act

Foreign Trade and International Finance|Foreign Trade and International Finance
Cosponsors
Support
Bipartisan
Introduced
Aug 15, 2025
Discussions
Bill Text
Current stageCommittee

Referred to the Committee on Ways and Means, and in addition to the Committees on Financial Services, Foreign Affairs, and Energy and Commerce, for a period to be subsequently det…

Introduced
Committee
Floor
President
Law
Congressional Activities
01 · The brief

The Secure Trade Act imposes a new additional 10 percent ad valorem duty on all imports into the United States (in addition to existing duties), gives the President limited authority to reduce that percentage for particular economic sectors, and creates a separate, China-specific tariff regime.

For articles from the People’s Republic of China the bill requires China-specific rates in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule, raises many rates substantially (including minimums of 35 percent or 100 percent ad valorem for certain ‘‘specified’’ articles), requires annual inflation adjustments, and authorizes tariff-rate quotas, import prohibitions, and further presidential increases or quotas to reduce reliance on Chinese imports.

The bill also changes valuation rules so merchandise from China must be appraised on a defined “United States value” with importer-submitted statements and CBP verification, expands CFIUS review to include certain greenfield and brownfield investments by ‘‘countries of concern,’’ and establishes new mandatory filing requirements for such transactions.

Passage20/100

On content alone, the bill is a major overhaul of trade policy with large economic and regulatory consequences and high controversy focused on a specific foreign country. Historically, sweeping tariff overhauls and large, economy‑wide protectionist measures face strong resistance unless bundled into broader negotiated packages or responding to crisis conditions; this text lacks narrow targeting, appropriations details, or clear bipartisan compromise hooks, making enactment unlikely without substantial revision.

CredibilityPartially aligned

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill is a substantive policy change that is comparatively detailed in statutory rate changes, phase-in schedules, and statutory references, but less developed on fiscal, enforcement, and explanatory elements.

Contention72/100

Scope of measures: liberals see opportunity to rebuild supply chains and address human-rights issues; conservatives see blanket protectionism and economic harm.

02 · What it does

Who stands to gain, and who may push back.

Who this appears to help vs burden50% / 50%
Federal agencies · StatesConsumers · Small businesses
Likely helped
  • Federal agenciesHigher tariff rates and broader coverage would increase federal customs revenue relative to current law.
  • Targeted stakeholdersStronger protection and higher barriers to Chinese imports for targeted sectors could encourage some onshoring or resho…
  • StatesExpanded CFIUS review of greenfield/brownfield investments and mandatory filings could reduce perceived national securi…
Likely burdened
  • ConsumersHigher and targeted tariffs, especially across many categories and with 100 percent rates for some goods, would likely…
  • Targeted stakeholdersSubstantial tariff hikes on China-origin goods and the ability to prohibit imports create a risk of retaliatory measure…
  • Small businessesRequiring China merchandise to be appraised to a U.S. market value and adding CBP verification increases compliance cos…
03 · Why people split

Why the argument around this bill splits.

Scope of measures: liberals see opportunity to rebuild supply chains and address human-rights issues; conservatives see blanket protectionism and economic harm.
Progressive60%

A mainstream liberal would likely view the bill as a strong federal tool to rebuild strategic supply chains, penalize human-rights abuses, and incentivize domestic production, but would be cautious about across-the-board tariffing.

They would welcome measures that treat human-rights-violating production and critical supply chains differently and that expand oversight of foreign investments, but worry about regressive impacts on consumers and workers.

They would be alert to the need for accompanying domestic industrial policy and protections for low-income households and labor standards.

Split reaction
Centrist45%

A centrist/ pragmatic observer would see the bill as a serious, wide-ranging attempt to address strategic dependencies on China and to strengthen national-security review of foreign investments, but would be concerned about large economic and legal trade-offs.

They would welcome targeted tools for critical supply chains and CFIUS expansion, but worry that blanket duties, very high minimums, and new valuation rules are blunt instruments that could raise costs, invite retaliation, and create legal risk under WTO rules.

Centrists would likely call for more economic analysis, narrower scope, sunset provisions, and stronger congressional oversight of executive tariff proclamations.

Split reaction
Conservative15%

A mainstream conservative would generally oppose broad, across-the-board import duties and expansion of federal regulatory power; they would share concerns about China but prefer narrower, market-oriented or security-targeted tools.

The universal 10% duty, high China-specific minimums (including many 100% rates), valuation redefinition, and large presidential discretion would likely be viewed as economically harmful, inflationary, and an overreach of executive authority.

The expansion of CFIUS review may be acceptable in principle, but overall the bill is more protectionist and administratively expansive than most mainstream conservatives favor.

Likely resistant
04 · Can it pass?

The path through Congress.

Introduced

Reached or meaningfully advanced

Committee

Reached or meaningfully advanced

Floor

Still ahead

President

Still ahead

Law

Still ahead

Passage likelihood20/100

On content alone, the bill is a major overhaul of trade policy with large economic and regulatory consequences and high controversy focused on a specific foreign country. Historically, sweeping tariff overhauls and large, economy‑wide protectionist measures face strong resistance unless bundled into broader negotiated packages or responding to crisis conditions; this text lacks narrow targeting, appropriations details, or clear bipartisan compromise hooks, making enactment unlikely without substantial revision.

Scope and complexity
86%
Scopesweeping
86%
Complexityhigh
Why this could stall
  • The bill text does not include a Congressional Budget Office cost estimate or formal analysis of macroeconomic impacts; the magnitude and distribution of economic effects (consumer prices, industry impacts, revenue vs. costs) are uncertain and would influence legislative support.
  • How trading partners would respond (retaliatory tariffs, WTO disputes) is not addressed in the text; the risk of international retaliation could alter member opinions and is a material political unknown.
05 · Recent votes

Recent votes on the bill.

No vote history yet

The bill has not accumulated any surfaced votes yet.

06 · Go deeper

Go deeper than the headline read.

Included on this page

Scope of measures: liberals see opportunity to rebuild supply chains and address human-rights issues; conservatives see blanket protectioni…

On content alone, the bill is a major overhaul of trade policy with large economic and regulatory consequences and high controversy focused…

Unlocked analysis

Relative to its intended legislative type, this bill is a substantive policy change that is comparatively detailed in statutory rate changes, phase-in schedules, and statutory references, but less developed on fiscal, e…

Go beyond the headline summary with full stakeholder mapping, legislative design analysis, passage barriers, and lens-by-lens tradeoff breakdowns.

Perspective breakdownsPassage barriersLegislative design reviewStakeholder impact map
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